Thursday, February 25, 2010

Passively Provocative


I've read differing arguments about the likelihood of entering an armed conflict with China. Most of those who think the idea is unlikely point to our economic overlap, noting that fighting one another would be irrational. I think Americans need to understand the Chinese value more than just economic prowess, although that is very important to them. The concept of One China is far more important to the PRC's legitimacy. Proof is in an article published in the UK's Times Online.

Here are some highlights

some highlights.

Now almost 55% of those questioned for Global Times, a state-run newspaper, agree that “a cold war will break out between the US and China”.
“We have nothing to be afraid of. The North Koreans have stood up to America and has anything happened to them? No. Iran stands up to America and does disaster befall it? No.”
This time China must punish the US,” said Major-General Yang Yi, a naval officer. “We must make them hurt.” A major-general in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Luo Yuan, told a television audience that more missiles would be deployed against Taiwan. And a PLA strategist, Colonel Meng Xianging, said China would “qualitatively upgrade” its military over the next 10 years to force a showdown “when we’re strong enough for a hand-to-hand fight with the US”
I believe the above statements prove that state weakness can be just as, if not more, provocative than state strength.

2 comments:

snydertm February 25, 2010 at 7:17 AM  

Missing the point, D. Bacon. The rationality argument has little to do with strategic preferences. Rather, can the costs of cutting the economic overlap be borne by Beijing. Much has been made about their need to maintain an incredibly high GDP growth rate to retain stability and governance.

It's an easy argument to take the quotes of a few military generals with questionable input in the decision making processes and make it seem like this is the will of the entire government. And perhaps, this is what they want (uncertainty deters). I am sure we could find the same quotes from people on our side of the Pacific (insert Walt Cochran) who certainly do not indicate the policy preferences of the United States.

Dcentofante February 25, 2010 at 9:56 AM  

ahh but mr snyder, you are assuming that they value a robust economy over the one China doctrine.

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